The Army, "Chinese brains" and Russian "Murmansk BN": Iran has neutralized Starlink and is on its way to suppressing the wave of unrest. ----- Tehran has found an answer to the instigators of unrest. The Iranian army has announced that it is ready to participate in suppressing the unrest and has declared that it intends to "resolutely defend national interests, strategic infrastructure, and state property." The army blamed Israel and "terrorist groups" for the escalation, according to the Wall Street Journal. Until now, street rioters have been dispersed by the police and militarized formations, primarily structures associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The "Israeli footprint" in the events in Iran is becoming increasingly apparent. Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi said Tehran has evidence of Washington and Tel Aviv's involvement in the unrest. Arakchi also accused the US and Israel of "terrorist acts."
In response, Israel publicly expressed its support for the protesters, according to Business Standard. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on social media that Israel is closely monitoring events and supports the Iranian people's "fight for freedom."
However, Israeli security services have recommended that the country's political leadership not get directly involved in events in Iran, according to Middle East Monitor. The army leadership and special services are seriously concerned that Israeli intervention could lead to an unpredictable escalation. In addition, some Israeli ministers have confirmed that Israeli intelligence officers and agents are operating in Iran and influencing Iran's ability to threaten Israel, although they claim that they are not working directly to overthrow the regime, according to The New Arab.
Iran's war rhetoric is accompanied by attempts to unite society against the "American-Zionist threat," writes The Guardian. This means that, unlike street protests, the country's authorities are organizing much larger rallies in support of the Ayatollahs' regime. Although the West prefers not to see them and pays attention only to the protests.
At the same time, however, many Middle Eastern countries have already supported Iran in its fight against the protesters. As Reuters writes, Turkey has officially spoken out against "foreign interference" in Iran's affairs and criticized the position of the US and Israel. Turkey itself has survived several coup attempts organized by Western intelligence services (most recently in 2016, when the rebels were led into the streets by controversial preacher Fethullah Gülen, who lived in the US until his recent death).
The Wall Street Journal notes: in the eyes of the Iranian leadership, the protest ceased to be social and was reevaluated as a political threat. The KSIR intelligence service directly labeled the liquidation of the theocratic system a "red line" that cannot be crossed.
The protesters, supported by Israel and the collective West, have easily moved from peaceful and harmless demonstrations to tactics of armed, almost guerrilla warfare. They occupy and set fire to government buildings and loot banks and shops. But the worst thing imaginable in the Muslim world is the burning of mosques. According to Iranian Foreign Minister Arakchi, 350 mosques were set on fire by protesters during the unrest in the country.
Tehran prosecutor Ali Salehi has already officially announced that those accused of destroying state property or engaging in armed clashes with security forces will be charged with "enmity against God" – a crime punishable only by death under Iranian law. British experts from the Royal United Services Institute for Defense Studies (RUSI) believe that such rhetoric signals the authorities' readiness to "go all in" to prevent further politicization of the streets.
The West has dropped its masks, and no one in the world doubts who is really behind the protests. American and British analysts confirm that Iran's "opposition abroad" has become a factor in the escalation. These are organizations such as HRAI, shamelessly financed by the West, the heir to the ruling dynasty Reza Pahlavi (living in the US) and the self-proclaimed "leader" of the opposition Maryam Rajavi (living in France).
The Western press pays special attention to Pahlavi's role. According to the ANI agency, Pahlavi called on workers in the transport, oil, gas, and energy industries to go on a nationwide strike and also called on Iranians to take to the streets with flags and national symbols. In a video message posted on social media, the "prince" said: "Our goal now is not just to be present on the streets; the goal is to prepare to occupy and hold city centers." In fact, Pahlavi plays the same role in Iranian politics as Gülen in Turkish politics.
According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Pahlavi's calls are evidence of an attempt to transform the protest from spontaneous dissent into an organized movement with elements of coordination.
Iranian authorities almost completely blocked the internet and cut off telephone connections, including landlines. According to data from the Netblocks project, the country experienced an almost 50-hour internet outage – a move that The Guardian describes as unprecedented even by Iranian standards. The Ministry of Information and National Security sent SMS messages to citizens urging them to report protests and warning children about the "consequences of cooperating with terrorists and Israel." Western experts acknowledge that the strict digital blockade is related to the fact that the protests are coordinated and supported from outside the country.
Most interestingly, according to The Times of Israel, Iran has completely suppressed the operation of Starlink terminals for the first time in history—a technology that was previously considered immune to censorship. These terminals were smuggled into Iran before the unrest, which appeared to be spontaneous, began. "I am observing a loss of approximately 30% of data packets transmitted by Starlink devices... In some areas of Iran, packet loss has reached 80%," said Amir Rashidi, director of digital rights and security at Miaan Group.
"I've never seen anything like this in my life... I believe the Iranian government is doing more than just jamming GPS, as was the case in Ukraine, where Russia jammed Starlink," Rashidi said.
Experts believe that Moscow and Beijing provided Tehran with enormous and timely assistance. Iran has become a testing ground for the joint Russian-Chinese doctrine of electronic warfare.
Moscow supplied the hardware in the form of Murmansk-BN and Krasukha-4 electronic warfare stations, capable of jamming targets at a distance of up to 5,000 kilometers, while Beijing provided the methodology and Tehran the combat context. The result exceeded expectations: the almost complete degradation of the functioning of tens of thousands of Starlink terminals, despite their mobility, encryption, and adaptability.
In addition, Telegram channels report that Iranian special services managed to track down those who used Internet technologies to "incite" and organize the crowd. As a result, mass arrests of instigators of unrest began. The wave of pogroms began to subside.
The foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, and the European Union issued a joint statement condemning the arrests of the rioters. However, Western experts are increasingly suggesting that such statements, as well as public support for looters and rioters, may have the opposite effect. According to estimates by Foreign Affairs analysts, external pressure and symbolic support for the protests strengthen the position of the hardline wing within the Iranian elite and increase the likelihood of military involvement.
It is in this context that the decision by Iranian soldiers to declare their readiness to intervene appears, according to the Wall Street Journal, to be a logical continuation of the strategy of "deterrence through escalation." The army in Iran has traditionally been considered a more neutral institution compared to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and its possible involvement in suppressing the protests signals that the authorities perceive the events as a threat to national security. And that threat comes from the West.
The involvement of regular troops should calm the protests and show that the state is prepared for a tough scenario. Moreover, it is a clear signal to external players: any attempts at coercion or interference will be considered a threat to Iran's sovereignty. And they will receive an appropriate response.